[A] Mexico has been pushing for more such legal routes for migrants. At the “Three Amigos” summit in January between Canada, Mexico and the United States, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said, “Social problems cannot be solved only by coercion measures.”

[B] Illegal migration across America’s southern border first accelerated in the 1980s, with the number of US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) “encounters” (apprehensions or expulsions) often exceeding 1m a year since then. In March 2020 Donald Trump’s administration used a pandemic inspired measure, known as Title 42, to seal the border. It allows migrants to be expelled on public-health grounds, either to their own country or, in some cases, to Mexico, which has agreed to accept some nationalities along with Mexicans.

[C] This change has the potential to significantly cut the volume of people entering the United States: the number of recorded attempts to cross its south-western border illegally in January, when some components of the new regime were put in place, fell to 128,410, or by 42% compared with December. But even as the United States asserts more control over its own border, the picture remains dangerously chaotic farther south, in Mexico and its southern neighbours.

[D] Over the past four decades migration flows over America’s southern border with Mexico have grown to become epic in scope—and an epic headache for American politicians. On February 21st President Joe Biden’s administration announced a new approach that it hopes could be transformative. The proposed policy allows the United States to immediately expel most people who cross its border illegally. It opens up a new, narrow, legal pathway for migrants: asylum-seekers will be able to try to secure an interview using a smartphone app.

[E] The Biden administration has been working on a semi-permanent replacement for Title 42, which is due to expire this year. The proposed rules would require asylum-seekers to try to secure an appointment using a smartphone app. If they do not the rules would establish a presumption that people who enter the United States are doing so illegally and are ineligible for asylum, although in some circumstance this could be contested. At the same time the policy would confirm as permanent a new system of “humanitarian parole” in which some 30,000 people a month, from selected countries (Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela), can enter the United States, providing they meet certain conditions. To be eligible, they must typically get approval before they travel to the United States, have a financial backer there, have a passport and pay for a flight.

[F] So will the new strategy work? According to the CBP, the largest drops in migrant flows have involved the nationalities facing a mix of the Title 42 regime and the parole system. A week after visas were announced for Venezuelans in October, the number encountered at the south-west border of the United States fell from an average of over 1,100 a day to under 200. By November this had fallen to 67, and by January to 28. Likewise, the numbers of Cubans, Haitians and Nicaraguans fell to 92 per day on January 21st, down from 928 on January 5th, when the parole system was extended to them. The administration is betting the new regime will make it harder for people to get into the United States. It may hope that this in turn weakens the incentives for migrants to leave their home countries.

[G] That raises the possibility that while the location of the migrant crisis may shift to Mexican soil, it remains unresolved. Mr Biden’s plans are being analysed by Mexican officials, who are unlikely to be impressed. They have long resisted pressure to be deemed a “safe third country”, requiring asylum-seekers who pass through their territory to seek refuge there instead of the United States—something Mr Biden’s proposal purports to do.

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