Enrollment in Los Angeles public schools is expected to plunge by nearly 30％ over the next decade, leading to tough choices ahead about academic programs, campus closures, jobs and employee benefits—and forcing, over that time, a dramatic remake of the nation’s second-largest school system. The predicted steep drop, which was outlined Tuesday in a presentation to the Board of Education, comes as school officials contemplate the future of Los Angeles Unified School District on several crucial fronts—including contract negotiations with the teachers union, which is seeking a 20％ raise over the next two years.

Enrollment has been incrementally dropping in L.A. Unified since peaking at about 737,000 students 21 years ago. That long-ago overcrowding detracted from the quality and even quantity of education—as campuses operated year-round with students on staggered schedules that provided 17 fewer days of instruction per year and limited access to advanced classes. The current enrollment is about 430,000 in kindergarten through 12th grade and is expected to fall about 3.6％ a year to an estimated 309,000 nine years from now.

The pace of the decline has accelerated since the pandemic, a phenomenon officials struggle to explain. At the start of the pandemic, many families kept preschoolers and kindergartners out of remote learning—preferring not to plant their children in front of computers for schooling. Yet the pace of decline has persisted even with the resumption of in-person classes. Experts have offered no conclusive explanation, but factors include families moving to more affordable areas, the decline in birth rates, a drop in immigration and, until recently, the rapid growth of charter schools.

Problems related to the enrollment drop have already surfaced. A handful of campuses—despite their importance as community anchors—have closed or are projected to close. Or, the campuses have been offered to charter schools—which are not operated by the district and compete for students. Many charters are also facing enrollment challenges and some have shut down.

Having fewer students creates financial strains because state and federal funding is based primarily on enrollment. It’s difficult to reduce fixed costs related to buildings and operations as the funding base shrinks. Moreover, decreased funding makes it more challenging to manage pension costs shared by all school systems as well as separate lifetime retiree health benefits that L.A. Unified has provided to long-term employees.

In the coming years, under the current structure, there could be more L.A. Unified retirees and dependents receiving healthcare benefits than active employees, said Chief Financial Officer David Hart. “That was never contemplated,” Hart said.

Financial strains can result in difficulties in________.