Barely 18 months have elapsed since the former Transport Secretary Grant Shapps unveiled the blueprint for a “revolutionary” Great British Railways, but it already has the flavour of an optimistic misnomer. Even an adequate British railway would be welcomed by those passengers stranded by everything from Avanti’s collapse to failing infrastructure and unprecedented strikes.

Rail’s financial structures, credited by proponents of privatization with revitalizing the industry for 25 years, have been ripped up. The pandemic played a hugely damaging role, prompting the blanket scrapping of franchising as passenger revenue disappeared. But COVID-19 arguably only accelerated the death of a system that was already acknowledged to be falling apart.

The Williams-Shapps review, commissioned back in 2018, long discussing and long delayed, ended up with the proposed creation of Great British Railways—a guiding mind, bringing together Network Rail and train operators, issuing better contracts, with sensible fares and ticketing, putting passengers first and independent of government micromanagement. Few in the industry argued with the conclusions. But few now are sure exactly when—or if—they will be followed through.

Even before Shapps departed, the Department for Transport’s officials found themselves in an unexpected battle. A year after the plan was released, fundamental aspects were not agreed with the Treasury. Civil servants have grown increasingly disillusioned with progress, despite the millions spent, the time invested, and the teams of consultants employed.

The announcement of headquarters of GBR is apparently one of the first in the in-tray of new transport secretary, Anne-Marie Trevelyan—even if rail’s wider suffering may not end soon. But, as one rail source puts it: “Something’s got to give. The industry’s in a complete mess, there’s no certainty. GBR was meant to be the future. Delaying it is just prolonging the paralysis.”

The mini-budget unveiled by the Chancellor is unlikely to help: announcing plans to stop strikes and hamper unions asking for a cost-of-living pay rise, while effectively raising the pay of bosses across the negotiating table—let alone its wider economic effects on the industry. The promise to “accelerate infrastructure schemes”, such as Northern Powerhouse Rail, listed vaguely at No. 96 in the appendix of the growth plan, received a sceptical welcome from an industry which has waited years for a basic pipeline of works to be updated. Those closer to the flagship schemes already approved, such as East-West Rail, are already hinting they are more likely to be abandoned.

Reform may instead come from a different political direction: Labour, leading strongly in the polls since Friday, reaffirmed at conference its commitment to Re-nationalization of rail as train operators’ contracts expire. Unless GBR is up and running by 2024, it may find it has run out of track.

Which of the following mainly contributes to the collapse of the rail’s financial structures?