Predicting the future is a risky business for a scientist. It is safe to

say, however, that the global AIDS epidemic will get much worse before

it gets any better. Sadly, this modern plague will be with us for several

generations, despite of major scientific advances. 【M1】_________

As of January 2000, the AIDS epidemic had claimed 15 million lives

and left 40 million people living on a viral infection that slowly but 【M2】_________

relentlessly erodes the immune system. Accounting of more than 3 【M3】_________

million deaths in the past year alone, the AIDS virus has become the

deadly microbe in the world. In Africa nearly a dozen countries have a 【M4】_________

rate higher than 10%, including four southern African nations which a 【M5】_________

quarter of the people are infected. This is like condemning 16,000

people each day to a slow and miserable death.

Unfortunately, the AIDS story has not been all gloom and doom. 【M6】_________

Less than two years after AIDS was recognized, the guilty agent—

human immunodeficiency virus, or HIV—identified. We now know 【M7】_________

more about HIV than about any other virus, but 14 AIDS drugs have 【M8】_________

been developed and licensed in the US and western Europe.

The epidemic continues to rage, however, in south America,

Eastern Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. By the year 2025, AIDS will

have been by far the major killer of young Africans, decreasing life

expectant to as low as 40 years in some countries and single-handedly 【M9】_________

erasing the public health gains of the past 50 years.

It is Asia, with its huge population at risk, where will have the 【M10】________

biggest impact on the global spread of AIDS. The magnitude of the

incidence could range from 100 million to 1 billion, depending largely on

what happens in India and China.

【M1】